3/11/2023 0 Comments Magic calculator formulaRunning these numbers or even understanding this formula requires some proficiency with spreadsheets, a programming language, and/or mathematical notation. Without this online tool, the formula to get this percentage probability for Eldrazi Tron would be So barring mulligans, you’ll have access to 7 mana on turn 3 on the draw approximately once per 8 games on average. What the above calculation reveals is that if you play a 60-card Eldrazi Tron deck in Modern without any card selection, then you would draw at least one copy of each Urza land in your top 10 cards in 12.6% of the games. Thanks to you both! I had always used spreadsheets or custom pieces of code to run the multivariate calculations myself, but it’s much easier to just plug a few numbers into an online tool, and I’m happy to share the discovery with you. I wasn’t even aware that an online tool existed until two readers pointed it out to me last week. Using an Online Multivariate Hypergeometric Calculator For those cases, you need the multivariate hypergeometric distribution. For instance, if you want to know the probability of getting an opening hand with two Soul Spike and four Chancellor of the Dross, you need to divide your deck in three categories: Soul Spikes, Chancellors, and other cards. In a Magic context, it could be creature/noncreature for the purpose of Collected Company, or land/nonland for the purpose of analyzing mana bases.īut if you are interested in more complicated questions that require you to model your deck as a set of three or more types of cards, then the “basic” hypergeometric distribution does not apply anymore. ![]() With these tools, it’s easy to analyze the consistency of your deck, how many copies of a certain card you should play, or how often your Collected Company will hit.īut to apply the hypergeometric distribution, it is essential that your deck can be classified into two mutually exclusive categories. Last week, I explained the hypergeometric distribution and how to use online hypergeometric calculators for Magic purposes.
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